SEMINAR 2026

Abstract

Anthropogenic heat flux is a defining feature of urban climates, yet its warming effect on the urban atmosphere cannot be quantified using observations alone. As a result, quantification of its warming effect has relied almost entirely on numerical modeling. Most previous modeling studies have taken an applied, case-specific approach, prescribing anthropogenic heat fluxes for particular cities or periods and reporting the resulting urban temperature responses, without establishing a coherent theoretical framework. This talk reframes the problem by focusing on the sensitivity of urban air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux, rather than on case-dependent temperature changes. Emphasis is placed on the physical processes governing this sensitivity and on how those processes are represented in numerical models. After defining this sensitivity and reviewing the range of values reported in the literature, I examine three key dimensions: (1) its spatial and temporal variability, (2) structural uncertainties in mesoscale models that influence it, and (3) the emergence of nonlinearity under strong heating. Together, these elements provide a unified, process-based framework for understanding the anthropogenic heating of the urban atmosphere.